The U.S. President taking office in January 2025 will undoubtedly cause significant damage to the United States and to the Green Party pillars of peace, ecology, social justice and democracy over the next four years. The following essay is intended to inspire Greens to adopt a hopeful long-term view of what the next 25 years may bring.
2028 – 2036
After a disastrous four years under Donald Trump, a progressive presidential candidate from California wins in 2028 and takes office peacefully. With a supportive Congress, he or she focuses on uniting Americans by rebuilding and improving federal government functions destroyed by the previous administration, taking climate change seriously, and making progress on a variety of economic issues using ideas originally suggested by Bernie Sanders. During this rare period of agreement Congress finally gets rid of the electoral college, helping this popular President to be re-elected in 2032.
By 2028, nearly every American has experienced significant climate events in their local area and is angry that the federal government is doing so little about it. It is obvious that climate change is serious and real, regardless of what they attribute the changes to. The pace of development of renewable energy has accelerated in every state, though nuclear energy continues to hang on in some states. During the period 2028 to 2036 there is a major federal government push (building on the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act) towards 100% renewable energy, especially for vehicles and buildings. Successful lawsuits against gas and oil companies in the United States push many of them into bankruptcy. Like with the tobacco companies in the late 20th century, the only companies that survive are the ones who change their product line – in this case either to wind and solar or to marginally cleaner sources like hydrogen or nuclear.
A major accomplishment of the U.S. Congress between 2028 and 2032 is the transformation of the Affordable Care Act into a state-by-state system of health care for all residents. Each state is allowed to set up their own system as long as everyone can participate (including immigrants). Access to health care is no longer tied to your employer. Greens and progressives continue to fight for a national single payer Medicare for All system. Additionally, retired Americans are now guaranteed to receive all the money they paid into Social Security while working.
During the period 2028-2032 the United States finally stops trying to limit immigration and allow everyone who wants to immigrate here to do so, giving them a path to citizenship. The government offers incentives for Immigrants to work in the many new manufacturing operations that have been re-shored to the United States from Asia. Unions become more powerful, and wages go up to entice more Americans to work in manufacturing. New government regulations try to ensure all workers’ well-being and rights, such as requiring that all employers allow labor unions and limit the use of robots to replace people.
Russian President Putin focuses on his place in history as he nears the end of his working life. After being pressured by Trump, he eventually ends the invasion of Ukraine and agrees to settle for a small part of Ukraine his army gained. As the U.S. ends our involvement in the middle East to focus on “America First,” Putin and his Iranian allies unilaterally impose a peace settlement on the Middle East that creates a new nation of Palestine controlled by Russia and Iran. After Putin is gone, Palestine eventually puts in place a democratic government.
The world looks quite different by 2032 as the popular U.S. President starts a second term. A chaotic climate and high fuel prices make it impractical to ship consumer goods and parts halfway across the world. China no longer manufactures and exports the majority of the world’s products. Instead, as Putin turns eighty and Russia focuses on identifying new internal leadership, China aggressively embarks on new military conquests to solidify their imagined superpower status. By 2036 China has taken back Hong Kong and Taiwan and started threatening small Asian nations.
By the mid-2030s a stable geopolitical balance has developed worldwide. The European Union, the Commonwealth countries, and the United States balance China, Russia, India, and the Muslim countries. Now the fight for domination of the solar system begins in earnest. Various national and corporate entities start seriously planning to mine the asteroids and to design Moon colonies and space stations big enough to live on. But the new space race is dominated by private corporations, not funded by superpower military spending.
In the U.S., military spending is cut significantly as Americans increasingly object to defending the rest of the world with their tax money while other countries provide a better life for their citizens. All American military bases overseas are permanently closed, and the armed forces is a fraction of its former size. Nuclear weapons are gradually retired as they exceed their design lifetime and are not replaced. By the mid-2030s the much smaller U.S. military budget is primarily devoted to cybersecurity. However, the United States now fully meets their financial commitments under the Paris Agreement and subsequent agreements to help small nations survive climate change. The U.S. is up to date with the full contributions that they owe to the United Nations. Discussions about the governance of space colonies begin at the United Nations.
During this period the renewable energy goals of states that were at the forefront of the clean energy transition (such as New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California) come to fruition. Offshore wind projects are running successfully, and there are solar panels on most home and business rooftops, parking lots, and brownfields. Onshore wind farms are ubiquitous. Electric vehicle charging stations are everywhere and new buildings are required to run on electricity rather than “natural” (methane) gas. Electrification of existing buildings is a major economic driver and source of jobs that don’t require higher education. Colleges and universities continue to close and consolidate as two-year colleges become tuition-free in many states.
Most new cars and light trucks are electric now that a strong network of charging stations has been built. Bus and truck manufacturers around the U.S. and Canada ramp up their production of electric vehicles and stop selling gas and diesel vehicles. School bus fleets are converting to electricity nationwide, as are city bus fleets. Leaders of conservative states realize the financial benefits of renewable energy jobs in their states and start ramping up their participation. Airplane travel for business is much less common since people can meet virtually.
2036 – 2044
Emergency planning at the state level is a critical government function now. There is always a natural disaster occurring somewhere in the United States at any given time. A portion of the land of every state is reserved for local food production and storage for emergencies. Transporting food over long distances to consumers is strongly discouraged by governments. Fortunately, local Green Parties have successfully educated the public about factory farms and mistreatment of food animals, leading to major changes in the agriculture sector. Large agricultural corporations and most meat and poultry operations close. With the agricultural system not controlled by large corporations, people can grow food locally for themselves and neighbors. Most Americans are now vegetarian, pescatarian or vegan.
By the late 2030s, with climate change a high priority issue for voters, the Green Party makes significant political gains at the state and local level. Social justice initiatives gain more traction with increased voter support. Greens are elected to Congress and lead progressive states like California. In the early 2040s Greens and their allies successfully pressure the federal government to relinquish all its remaining “colonies” (such as the Philippines, Guam, and Puerto Rico).
During this period states that haven’t already done so finally implement regulations requiring new homes and commercial buildings to be all-electric. The electric grid has been modernized everywhere to handle the greatly increased demands, using federal government incentives and grants. Parking lots and warehouses are covered with solar panels. Solar-embedded road surfaces cover large interstate highways. Trucks, buses, and trains of all types of sizes are now electric, and many trucks are self-driving. Individual car ownership wanes significantly, and autonomous electric vehicles are the preferred form of transportation in major cities.
Amtrak has converted all their trains from diesel to electric engines, and the federal government is funding the electrification of freight train rolling stock in return for increased regulation of their labor practices. Government requirements include providing a living wage and union representation for workers and making sure that no routes are abandoned due to unprofitability. As much freight as possible is carried by trains until the “last mile.” Eighteen-wheeler trucks (even if electric) are no longer allowed on the road in densely populated areas due to their dangerous size and weight differential with passenger vehicles. Warehouses can only be sited in areas not suitable for any other use, including conservation and ecological purposes.
2044 – 2050
By 2044 most buildings (both new and old) in the U.S. are electrified. Vehicles no longer use fossil fuels. Most food and consumer products are made locally or regionally. Much progress has been made on decarbonizing manufacturing (such as by using carbon-free cement) but small amounts of fossil fuel are still being used to make critical plastic products. Scientific research over the past 20 years has led to many new carbon-free products that replace plastic use. Consumer products such as clothing are made of natural materials once more. Since most commerce is local or regional within the United States, much less plastic packaging is needed.
The United States is much more economically self-sufficient than it was twenty-five years ago. Major trade agreements between countries no longer exist. Instead, there are agreements between states and regions to provide help when climate emergencies threaten to break local economic networks. Tax collection has been simplified so that Americans no longer submit tax returns every year unless they want to contest the government’s assessment of their tax liability.
In the late 2040s Hawaii becomes an independent nation. Alaska chooses to become a Canadian province, and the District of Columbia is granted statehood at last. With an odd number (49) of states, the U.S. Senate can no longer be deadlocked with two opposing parties so third parties have more leverage. The recent push for state independence puts pressure on U.S. states to reform their voting systems to be more representative, which allows the Green Party to win more seats. Ranked choice voting is now used in most states. Third parties, including the Green Party, are alive and well.
